Finance: what the public record shows
This section focuses on one simple principle: if large sums are being raised from Shetland, or large commitments are being made in Shetland’s name, the public should be able to see the numbers, the method, and the assumptions.
We do not ask readers to accept conclusions. We ask that the record is made visible and comparable over time.
What the official figures show
The most direct published measure of Shetland’s net financial relationship with government is the Exchequer Balance — the difference between: government revenue raised in Shetland and government expenditure in Shetland. Many people will be surprised to know that Shetland is a net contributor to the UK Treasury. Every year we contribute large sums to the UK with no strings attached and no comment made.
These figures were not produced every year. They appear in a small number of commissioned studies, roughly at seven-year intervals, and they are not directly comparable unless the same accounting basis is used.
- 1996/97: +£10 million (net contribution) — referenced in the 2003 study
- 2003: +£64 million (net contribution) — Social Accounting Matrix method
- 2010/11: +£76.1 million (net contribution) — Shetland Economic Accounts
- 2017: reported as −£129.5 million (net receipt) — methodology changed.
The pattern up to 2010/11 shows Shetland was a consistent net contributor to the wider public finances. The 2017 study then produced a result that is difficult to reconcile with earlier figures, because the method changed. TSNS has produced a like-for-like restatement of the 2017 result using the earlier 2010/11 basis. On that restated basis, the figure appears to be +£139.7 million (a swing of £269.2 million from the published 2017 headline). We are interested to know what the figures look like today, but the SIC has decided to no longer publish them.
When the accounting basis changes, the headline number may still look precise, but it can no longer be used as a like-for-like comparison. This is not a technical detail — it determines whether the public can see a meaningful trend.
SIC has now confirmed that it has no plans to commission further Shetland Economic Accounts. That means the Exchequer Balance is no longer being updated as a public record.
In a democracy, this matters. If Shetland is contributing large sums to the wider treasury, the public has a legitimate interest in knowing: how much, by what method, and on what assumptions.
What changed — and why comparability matters
When a metric is reported intermittently and then the method changes, it becomes easy for the public to lose track of reality. The number can be presented as “official” while no longer meaning the same thing as earlier figures.
The fair question is not “who is right?” — it is: are we using a like-for-like basis across time? If not, what adjustments are required so the public can compare the same thing across different reports?
Questions this section is trying to answer
- Is Shetland a consistent net contributor to the wider public finances, and by how much?
- What method is being used, and is it comparable with earlier studies?
- If the official series has stopped, what should replace it so the public can see trend and accountability?
- What local decisions depend on financial assumptions that are not being transparently stated?
How Shetland First uses evidence here
Where possible we link to the underlying reports and correspondence, and we keep a clean index in the TSNS Evidence Library. We also treat “information not held” responses as part of the public record.